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With Time Tree® you define decisions directly in the project
schedule!
Decision points are no different from any other event in your development
schedule. So why would you handle them in separate decision trees?
PetroVR Version 3.0 allows you to define decision points or chance
nodes in the natural place, right in your development schedule!
When you add a decision point, the schedule will branch out in
as many project scenarios as you like. Which scenario to follow
can be defined as a function, a distribution or directly specified
by the user.
PetroVR creates a schedule for each branch, which you can edit
independently. All events above the decision point are edited separately.
Each scenario may also have different surface facilities. To handle
multiple surface developments, PetroVR will automatically create
a corresponding process flow diagram to each of the branches in
the Time Tree® .
Platform, FPSO or Walk?
Any project has it's own unique set of uncertainties and decisions.
The example above shows an offshore development where the major
decision is whether to select a SPAR platform development, a floating
FPSO solution with a sub-sea development or simply to abandon the
field. The decision will be taken after a long term production test
and is based on an assessment of total field reserves.
Since reserves have been identified as the decision criteria, a
simple function of field reserves was built in the decision point.
When reserves are changed, the economics for the correct branch
will automatically be calculated.
In Monte Carlo simulations, distributions are controlling the volumetric
parameters (area, net pay and porosity). When the simulation is
run, the appropriate branch is selected prior to executing the economics
in each iteration. The economic results, for example Net Present
Value, will therefore represent the risk weighted results of a decision
tree with a Platform, FPSO and Failure branch plus all the other
uncertainties you may have defined in the model.
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