Risk Variables in PlanVR

PetroVR strives to model the entire life-cycle of petroleum investments from conception to abandonment. The system allows any uncertainty having an impact on the project profitability to be measured.

The following tables show the key parameters in PetroVR, which can be a risked variable in a Monte Carlo simulation and the parameter's key impact on the project. Note that each of the following parameters can be defined via PetroVR functions. These functions can be based on user defined inputs, so that nearly any imaginable uncertainty can be included!

 

FLUIDS

Type

Parameter

Volume

Rate

Time

Money

Oils Gravity      

x

  GOR

x

   

x

  Bo

x

     
Gases Gravity      

x

  BTU      

x

  Oil Yield

x

     
  Water Yield

x

     

 

DRILLING

Parameter

Volume

Rate

Time

Money

Day Rate      

x

Fixed Cost      

x

Days    

x

 
OpEx      

x

Learning    

x

x

Deviation    

x

x

 

RESERVOIRS

Type

Parameter

Volume

Rate

Time

Money

  Well Spacing

x

x

x

x

Exploration Fetch Area

x

     
  Source H

x

     
  TOC

x

     
  Generation Efficiency

x

     
  Migration Efficiency

x

     
  Trap Timing

x

     
  Seal Integrity

x

     
Volumetrics Reservoir Area

x

 

x

x

  Net Pay

x

     
  Rock Volume

x

     
  Gas Cap

x

     
  Porosity

x

     
  Saturation

x

     
  Recovery Factor

x

     
Gas Reservoir Temperature

x

x

   
  Initial Pressure

x

x

   
  Abandonment Pressure

x

x

   

 

WELL PERFORMANCE

Type

Parameter

Volume

Rate

Time

Money

  Initial Rate  

x

x

 
  Economic Limit  

x

x

x

  Well Reserves

x

x

   
  Rate Restrictions  

x

   
Oil Producers Annual Decline  

x

x

 
  Nominal Decline  

x

x

 
Gas Producers Flow Coefficient  

x

   
  Flow Slope  

x

   
  Well Head Pressure  

x

   
  Bottom Hole Pressure  

x

   
  Surface Temperature  

x

   
Water Injectors Maximum Rate  

x

   
  Voidage Replacement

x

x

   

 

FACILITIES

Type

Parameter

Volume

Rate

Time

Money

  CapEx      

x

  Construction Time    

x

 
  Fixed OpEx      

x

  Cost Scaling Factor      

x

  Capacity  

x

   
  Fluid OpEx      

x

Pipelines Time per Length    

x

 
  Cost per Length      

x

 

EVENTS

Parameter

Volume

Rate

Time

Money

Start Date    

x

 
Duration    

x

 
Cost      

x

OpEx      

x

 

ECONOMICS

PetroVR economics are implemented in Caesar's Financial Modeling Language (FML). Being a language, the economic models possible in PetroVR are limited only by imagination. Any input into FML can be a risk variable.

In the negotiation phase of a contract, typical risked parameters are taxes, profit & cost recovery splits, royalty, and working interest.

Once the contract is set, typical risked parameters are oil and gas price, escalation, tariffs, and force majure events.

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