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A Probablistic Approach to Shale Gas Economics
SPE 108053
Shale gas plays are generally characterized by high commercial risk. The economic evaluation process requires a consistent approach in comparing the economics of various plays, defining a range of uncertainties, and providing management with maximum insight into the basis for a Go—No Go decision.
Due to the large number of unknowns, deterministic economic modeling gave low confidence and was viewed as merely a scoping indication of commercial potential. This paper describes a consistent, systematic probabilistic approach employed in the evaluation of a number of shale gas plays, how various software applications were deployed, the vital role of multi-disciplinary participation, iterative modeling efforts and conclusions. Read complete Case Study
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